Rob Isbitts

6 min read

Investors analyzing potential trades by Matej Kastelic via Shutterstock

Investors analyzing potential trades by Matej Kastelic via Shutterstock

Investors naturally want simplicity. But in a world of rising inflation, geopolitical turmoil, and a stock market fueled by pandemic-era liquidity, asset allocation and time allocation are more closely linked than ever.

Unlike our parents, who relied on defined pensions and stable social security, today's investors face structural headwinds. Furthermore, economic pressures on our children have created financial interdependencies. Nearly 40% of workers have taken loans or withdrawals from retirement accounts. This means time horizons for many are actively shortening.

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Assuming the stock market will indefinitely deliver strong returns is a massive risk. Yet, multiple retirement providers note that Baby Boomers have 70% to 80% of their portfolios allocated to stocks. This widespread complacency motivates me to introduce alternative paths, poking holes in popular investment approaches and urging considerations of wider market scenarios.

A Trifecta Of Redundancy

A recent star of "set-it-and-forget-it" investing is the "Trifecta ETF Portfolio." Promoted by financial influencers, the pitch relies on picking three specific ETFs for distinct roles: broad growth, dividend cash flow, and technology upside. A classic example includes:

  • VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI)) – The Core

  • SCHD (Schwab US Dividend Equity (SCHD)) – The Income Wingman

  • QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)) – The Growth Wingman

On paper, it looks perfectly balanced. In reality, it is just VTI with two wingmen that add no unique value. They either move in sync with VTI, or form a duo that replicates it.

Peeling Back the Labels: The Overlap Problem

When you bundle VTI, SCHD, and QQQ, you assume you are buying three different baskets of stocks. Instead, you are buying the same basket with different marketing stickers.

  • QQQ is structurally trapped inside VTI: A staggering 90% of the stocks held in QQQ sit inside VTI. Buying QQQ alongside VTI doesn't diversify your tech exposure. Instead, it doubles down on the same mega-cap tech giants like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft. This happens because a small set of giant stocks dominates any index weighted by market capitalization.

  • SCHD is structurally trapped inside VTI: Nearly 98% of the stocks held in SCHD already reside in VTI. Your "income protector" is just a carved-out slice of your core holdings.